2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 46: Is Dodgers’ Andre Ethier Becoming an Elite OF?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Andre Ethier appeared primed to surpass his 2009 breakout season last year, until a broken finger sidelined him for two weeks.

At the time of the injury in mid-May, Ethier was batting .392 (thanks to an inflated BABIP). By the end of June, his batting average had dropped to .312. Having smashed 11 HRs before the injury, he then totaled just 12 bombs in the final four months of the season.

In late September, Ethier said he had finally got “full strength back” in his hand. An entire 2011 season of Ethier at “full strength” could yield totals similar to the 92/31/106/ line he posted in 2009.

The only question: Who will protect Ethier in the Dodgers lineup?

Rafael Furcal will undoubtedly lead off. New manager Don Mattingly has mentioned Casey Blake could hit second, and Loney would be a decent fit there as well. Kemp and Ethier would then hit third and fourth, respectively, leaving Juan Uribe to bat fifth behind Ethier.

Working in Ethier’s favor, however, is his improved pitch-recognition skills. He was one of only seven players last season to post above-average results against fastballs, sliders, cutters, curveballs, changeups, and splitters.

Also worthy of noting is Ethier’s steady decline in the contact department. His strikeout rate has climbed with his power (which is to be expected), but his contact rate (85.4, 83.0, 81.8) and swinging strike rate (6.2, 7.5, 8.5) in recent years are trending in the wrong direction.

All things considered, Ethier remains capable of approaching 30 HRs, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average. Just don’t draft him as an elite outfielder.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
• No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
• No. 42: Alex Rios
• No. 43: Brian McCann
• No. 44: Drew Stubbs
• No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more Los Angeles Dodgers news on BleacherReport.com